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|  | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #45 on Aug 30, 2008, 1:02am » | |
New Orleans braces for Hurricane Gustav
By Kathy Finn in New Orleans
August 30, 2008 12:48pm
![[image]](http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/487/06224913005315985gx7.jpg)
NEW Orleans residents have paused to mark the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's devastating blow even as they faced a possible evacuation order ahead of another potentially powerful storm.
City residents, many still recovering from the destruction of Katrina, could be ordered to evacuate tomorrow to escape next week's expected landfall of Hurricane Gustav, Mayor Ray Nagin said.
Gustav strengthened to a hurricane overnight after it killed up to 77 people in the Caribbean in mudslides and floods.
As it churns into the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters it could grow to a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, with wind speeds up to 209 kph.
It would be the most powerful hurricane to hit the US Gulf Coast since 2005.
The storm's current projected track takes it into the low-lying Terrebonne Parish southwest of New Orleans, one of the least-protected areas on the Louisiana coast.
Marking Katrina's anniversary
City officials paused their Gustav preparations to hold an abbreviated ceremony to mark the third anniversary of Katrina with a symbolic burial service for more than 80 unidentified victims of the 2005 storm.
About 150 residents gathered in a cemetery as pallbearers guided a single silver casket from a horse-drawn carriage.
Bells rang through the city at 9:38 am, the time on August 29, 2005, when the city's levees began to give way. Federal officials say the levees are stronger but gaps still exist that leave some of the neighborhoods hardest hit by the 2005 flooding vulnerable.
Katrina's waters flooded 80 percent of New Orleans, killed 1500 people along the Gulf Coast and caused at least $80 billion in damages.
Preparing for Gustav
US President George W. Bush, who was widely criticised for a slow federal response to Katrina, has declared an emergency in Louisiana.
Governors of Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi also declared emergencies to allow them to call up troops and mobilise emergency efforts.
Gustav could bring a storm surge up to 30 feet (9 metres) when it comes ashore on Tuesday morning, according to federal officials.
That could mean voluntary or mandatory evacuations for the four states in Gustav's path - Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas and Alabama - the Federal Emergency Management Agency said.
"We fear for our lives," said Edgar Gomez, a Venezuelan engineer working for ConocoPhillips, who was at the New Orleans airport with his wife and three daughters.
"We have no experience with this kind of a storm and after Katrina there is no way we are staying."
In all, 11.5 million people are in the path of the storm, according to the US Census Bureau.
Louisiana will likely order evacuations from some low-lying coastal areas today, and probably shift traffic flow patterns to carry all vehicles away from coastal regions on Sunday, Governor Bobby Jindal said.
"It does look like this will be a strong storm," Mr Jindal said, leaving the door open for broader evacuations.
At least two low-lying parishes near New Orleans, St Charles and Lafourche plan mandatory evacuation as of thisd evening.
In a bid to avoid the 2005 spectacle of desperate city residents crammed into the New Orleans Superdome, the government has lined up hundreds of buses and trains to evacuate 30,000 people who can't leave the city on their own.
About 1500 Louisiana National Guard troops were now in New Orleans.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24265982-38198,00.html
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #46 on Aug 30, 2008, 5:32am » | |
![[image]](http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/9011/200808300945irecropia5oj2.gif)
Hurricane Gustav (left) and Tropical Storm Hanna (right) as at 0945 UTC 30/08/2008.
![[image]](http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/5485/200808301415nwvecropbj8.gif)
Enhanced Water Vapour Image: Hurricane Gustav (left) and Tropical Storm Hanna (right) as at 1415 UTC 30/08/2008.
These systems appear to be travelling in tandem (despite the predictions of weather models) and Gustav appears to be feeding into Hanna at this time by way of a stream at the bottom of these images.
The worst case scenario is that Hanna reaches Hurricane status and follows Gustav's path through the Gulf.
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #47 on Aug 30, 2008, 9:06pm » | |
Its interesting that there is still no comment about Tropical Storm Hanna nor the fact that Hanna is being fed by Hurricane Gustav. I suppose we'll get to hear about Hanna when she slams into Florida. Meanwhile:
Deadly hurricane roars into Cuba
Hurricane Gustav, a highly dangerous Category 4 storm, is lashing Cuba with torrential rain after leaving a trail of destruction across the Caribbean.
![[image]](http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/7343/44973523449735207931526cg1.jpg)
The storm brought waves crashing over Havana's Malecon promenade
The storm ploughed through Cuba's Isle of Youth before hitting the mainland in Pinar del Rio province with maximum winds of nearly 240km/h (150mph).
Almost a quarter of a million people have been evacuated in Cuba, where there has been extensive flooding.
Gustav has already claimed the lives of more than 80 people in the Caribbean.
It has swept through Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica over the past week, killing dozens of people and causing widespread damage.
As a Category 4 storm, Gustav is already stronger than Hurricane Katrina was when it hit New Orleans in 2005, killing some 1,800 people and causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.
But US forecasters warned that the latest storm could yet strengthen further after it passes Cuba, potentially growing to a Category 5 - the highest possible classification - as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
![[image]](http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/8530/17989621nw2.gif)
After Cuba, Gustav's projected path takes it over the oil-producing Gulf, before making landfall in the US, possibly as early as Monday.
A hurricane watch has been put in place along America's North Gulf coast, from Texas along to the Alabama-Florida border.
In the US, the city of New Orleans has begun enforcing a mandatory evacuation order for coastal districts, or parishes, Emergency officials have warned people in vulnerable areas not to try and ride out the storm.
US Republicans say their convention in Minnesota next week could be suspended as the storm roars ashore.
John McCain, due to be nominated as the party's presidential election candidate, said the decision would depend on the storm's impact.
"It wouldn't be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near-tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a national disaster," he told Fox News.
Tobacco fears
Gustav hit mainland Cuba between in the west of Pinar del Rio province, reports said, having passed across the low-lying Isla Juventud, or Isle of Youth.
The island's civil defence chief, Ana Isla, said there were no reports of deaths but there were "many people injured".
She told the Associated Press that nearly all the island's roads were washed out and some regions were heavily flooded.
Cuban state media reported that many buildings were underwater and entire warehouses had been brought down.
The storm has already brought extensive flooding to the western, tobacco-growing province of Pinar del Rio and to Havana province.
Almost 250,000 people have been evacuated from low-lying coastal regions and half a million sacks of valuable dried cigar tobacco leaves were moved into safe storage.
The capital, Havana, is expected to escape the worst of the storm but its effects are being felt there - several parts of the city have lost power and large waves have poured over the Malecon, the capital's famous seafront promenade.
The BBC's Michael Voss in Havana says Cuba, the only communist country in the Americas, has one of the best organised disaster-preparedness systems in the region.
Nevertheless, there have been reports of people fleeing from coastal areas carrying their belongings and valuable home appliances.
One woman said she was not afraid to leave home because "the police and authorities are always watching and taking care of things".
Storm surge fears
In the US, the Associated Press estimates that about one million people took to highways in the Gulf Coast region on Saturday to flee the storm.
Coastal parishes in New Orleans have been placed under mandatory evacuation, and long queues could be seen at assembly points in the city.
States of emergency have been declared in Louisiana and Texas.
Emergency officials have warned that a tidal storm surge up to nine metres (30ft) is possible along the coast.
David Paulison, head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), said the government had learnt from Katrina and was taking a "pro-active" approach to the storm, getting evacuation transportation and extra personnel on the ground early.
Gustav is the second major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.
On Friday night, Gustav struck the low-lying Cayman Islands, flooding streets in the tax haven and luxury tourist resort but reportedly causing no injuries.
Earlier, the storm claimed the lives of at least 66 people in Haiti, eight in the Dominican Republic and seven in Jamaica, where heavy rains caused flooding and strong winds tore roofs off houses.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/7589299.stm
Published: 2008/08/31 00:35:11 GMT
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #48 on Aug 31, 2008, 12:34am » | |
Nagin orders evacuation in face of 'mother of all storms'
From the comments:
Posted by milwriter on 08/30/08 at 8:32PM
Just spoke to some military weather techs. This huge storm continues to increase in lethality. Time to depart while there is still time.
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #49 on Aug 31, 2008, 9:53am » | |
Gulf Coast braces, flees as deadly Gustav takes aim at US
August 31, 2008 - 11:30PM
![[image]](http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/3769/0622592000kt1.jpg)
Killer Hurricane Gustav churned toward the US Gulf Coast Sunday where residents jammed highways on mandatory orders to evacuate New Orleans, still battered by the 2005 Hurricane Katrina catastrophe.
A slightly weakened Gustav -- still a dangerous Category 3 storm with winds near 125 miles (205 kilometers) per hour -- battered Cuba Sunday after claiming at least 81 lives in its tear across the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica.
New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, desperate to avoid a replay of the 2005 Katrina catastrophe, ordered the city emptied on Sunday in the face of what he called "the storm of the century" and roads quickly filled with fleeing residents.
"Get out of town," Jefferson parish president Aaron Broussard said in a public announcement Sunday morning. "Have the courage to disconnect yourself from your material things. You cannot protect yourself against what Mother Nature is going to send us."
Jefferson Parish includes the West Bank, where a "storm surge" of water pushed ashore by hurricane winds is expected to easily wash over levees guarding that area.
Weather models indicate a surge could be more than 20 feet (almost three meters) high, double the height of levees on the West Bank.
"We are going to see storm surge on the West Bank like we have never seen before," said Jefferson parish councilman Chris Roberts. "Now is the time to sound the alarm."
In Cuba, Gustav tore off roofs, flattened buildings and plunged communities into darkness as it smashed through the Isle of Youth, then tore across mainland Cuba southwest of Havana, which has a population of more than two million. There were no immediate reported deaths in Cuba.
The monster storm lost some of its punch in the process, with US officials downgrading it from four to three.
At 1200 GMT, the US National Hurricane Center said Gustav's eye was about 375 miles (605 km) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, as the storm moved northwest about 16 mph (26 km/h) and was expected to strengthen a bit.
"On this track Gustav will be moving across the central Gulf of Mexico today (Sunday) and make landfall on the northern Gulf coast on Monday," the NHC added, warning "an extremely dangerous storm surge of 18 to 25 feet (more than six meters) above normal tidal levels is expected near and to the east of where the center of Gustav crosses the northern Gulf Coast."
President George W. Bush is unlikely to travel to the Republican Convention Monday as Hurricane Gustav closes in on the US Gulf Coast, the White House said in Washington. The Katrina catastrophe was a major political siaster for his administration.
Republican White House hopeful John McCain and his running-mate Sarah Palin also said they would suspend their normal election campaign and visit to Mississippi to inspect preparations for Gustav's arrival.
Major oil producers BP, ConocoPhillips and Shell on Thursday evacuated workers from their facilities in the Gulf where nearly a quarter of US crude oil installations are located.
Cuban national television reported that the scene on the Isle of Youth was one of devastation after the monster storm ground its way across the low-lying island of fishing villages, factories and citrus farms.
"The situation is very difficult," acknowledged Ana Delgado, president of the Municipal Defense Council there. "The damage is widespread."
Homes were under water, warehouses toppled, and roads washed away on the Isle, state television said, adding there were some injuries though no immediate reports of deaths.
More than 250,000 were evacuated from western parts of mainland Cuba before the storm hit near the town of Carraguao, 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Havana, then crossed into the Gulf of Mexico, the Cuban weather service said.
Used to fairly frequent smaller tropical storms, Havana residents ran around town Saturday gathering candles and food, boiling water and taping up windows. But the steady flow of updates on state television alarmed many.
"Really, I just did not expect this -- it has been a long time since we have been hit by such a powerful hurricane, and this Gustav looks like it will be quite strong," retired actress Gliseria Farinas said in Havana.
A key concern was for the crowded and charming colonial-era Old Havana, which UNESCO declared a World Heritage Site in 1982. Its fragile, centuries-old buildings are prone to cave-ins after heavy rains, though most of Cuba's housing stock is old and fragile.
Cuban authorities have said that in Havana alone there are 1,000 buildings in "critical condition". These include about 8,000 structures housing some 26,000 people, many of them in Old Havana.
Earlier Gustav's path of destruction left 66 dead and 10 missing in Haiti. In neighbouring Dominican Republic, the death toll stood at eight, while in Jamaica the toll stood at seven, with many thousands displaced.
http://news.smh.com.au/world/gulf-coast-....80831-46fo.html
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #50 on Sept 1, 2008, 1:09am » | |
Gustav and Hanna as at 0345 UTC 01/09/2008:
![[image]](http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/3528/200809010345cropdd7.gif)
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #51 on Sept 3, 2008, 5:15am » | |
Hanna kills 16; Josephine on the way
By John Marquis in Nassau, Bahamas
September 03, 2008 10:37am
HEAVY rains have flooded parts of Haiti with head-high water, killing at least 16 people, as Tropical Storm Hanna swirled over the Bahamas and took aim at the US southeast.
A new tropical storm, Josephine, formed off Africa behind Tropical Storm Ike. Both were moving westward just as Hurricane Gustav dissipated after slamming into the US Gulf Coast near New Orleans.
The flurry of Atlantic storms underscored predictions for a busier than normal hurricane season and was worrisome news for US oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico, millions of people living in the Caribbean and on US coasts, and farmers fearing flooded fields.
The US Government has forecast 14 to 18 tropical storms will form during the six-month season that began on June 1, more than the historical average of 10. Josephine was already the 10th, forming before the statistical peak of the season on September 10.
By Tuesday night, Hanna was bearing down on Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas with 65 mph (100 kph) winds, the US National Hurricane Centre said. It was expected to strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph) today or tomorrow.
Hanna dumped torrential rains on the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos island, where emergency officials warned of high seas and possible flooding.
In Haiti, heavy rains caused severe flooding in the northern port city of Gonaives, where thousands of people died four years ago during a similar catastrophe.
"The city is flooded and there are parts where the water gets to 2 metres," said civil protection director Alta Jean-Baptiste.
"A lot of people have been climbing onto the tops of their houses since last night to escape the flooding."
Authorities said at least 12 people were killed in low-lying Gonaives, three in the nearby town of Gros Morne and one in the southwest city of Miragoane.
Emergency in Florida
Hanna had been drifting but was forecast to turn northwest on a track that would take it near the Bahamian capital of Nassau and near the US East Coast by Thursday. It was likely to come ashore at the end of the week somewhere between northern Florida and the Carolinas.
Although the official forecast kept it over water as it skirted the Florida coast, state Governor Charlie Crist declared a state of emergency.
Tropical Storm Ike headed west after forming on Monday between Africa and the Caribbean and appeared likely to become a hurricane that would threaten the Caribbean islands and possibly the United States.
It was too early to say where Ike might go but the storm drew the attention of energy companies running the 4000 offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico that provide the US with a quarter of its crude oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.
Ike was about 1030 miles (1655 km) east of the Leeward Islands and moving west at 17 mph (28 kph) late yesterday. Its top sustained winds had strengthened to 65 mph (100 kph) and were expected to reach hurricane strength of 74 mph (119 kph) today.
Josephine swirled over the far eastern Atlantic about 125 miles (205 km) southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph), with top sustained winds of near 50 mph (85 kph), and could become a hurricane today.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24286883-401,00.html
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #52 on Sept 3, 2008, 5:18am » | |
![[image]](http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/944/atloverview6992976ot9.gif)
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #53 on Sept 3, 2008, 11:31am » | |
Why Hurricane Gustav Didn't Become a Monster
Willie Drye
for National Geographic News
September 2, 2008
Hurricane Gustav had the potential to become a monster hurricane last Saturday, but two factors intervened to keep it from intensifying.
![[image]](http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/3002/080902gustavhurricanebicx1.jpg)
Hurricane Gustav nears the Louisiana coast on September 1, 2008, in a false-color satellite image.
The storm's passage over Cuba combined with upper-level winds intervened to keep it from becoming a monster hurricane that would have devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast, experts said Tuesday.
Photograph from Associated Press/Handout
The hurricane's passage over western Cuba "roughed it up" just enough so that the storm's eye partly deteriorated, said Jeff Masters, director of the private forecasting service Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
And upper-level winds—known as wind shear—were just strong enough to keep the hurricane from quickly regaining power over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, he said.
The hurricane struck Cuba Saturday with peak winds of about 150 miles (241 kilometers) an hour.
"If the shear had been [a little weaker], it would have survived the crossing of Cuba without undergoing a major disruption," Masters said.
"It would have intensified into a Category 4 hurricane and been a disaster [for the U.S.] We got lucky."
Category 4 hurricanes have winds ranging from 131 to 155 miles an hour (211 to 249 kilometers an hour).
Losing Steam
When a disrupted Gustav crossed an area of very warm and deep water in the Gulf of Mexico known as the Loop Current, it was not able to restoke its energy.
Once it was past the Loop Current, Gustav entered cooler, shallower water closer to the Gulf Coast and began losing power.
The hurricane came ashore in Louisiana yesterday morning as a strong Category 2 storm with winds of 110 miles (177 kilometers) an hour.
Gustav was just below the threshold of being classified as a major hurricane with winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) an hour.
Levee Test
Still, Hurricane Gustav provided a severe test of the repaired levee system in New Orleans.
The storm surges caused water to slosh over the Industrial Canal levee in downtown New Orleans—a levee that failed during disastrous Hurricane Katrina in 2005 but did not break under Gustav.
"That told us that the levee system is improved," Masters said.
But Gustav's power did not fully test the level of protection the levees were designed to provide.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which has been repairing the levees since Katrina, has said the structures will withstand the storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane.
"They weren't tested to the full level that the Corps has advertised that they've done," Masters said. "We don't know if they will withstand a Category 2 or 3."
100 Percent Better
The storm system hugged the Louisiana coast after it made landfall in Cocodrie, a small town on the Gulf Coast about 70 miles (113 kilomters) southwest of New Orleans.
Felix Navejar, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles, Louisiana, said southwestern Louisiana fared much better from Gustav than it did three years ago during Hurricane Rita.
Rita was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border in September 2005.
"We're 100 percent better than Rita," Navejar said this morning. "It looks really good here—maybe one power outage, but nothing major."
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/09/080902-gustav-hurricane.html
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #54 on Sept 3, 2008, 11:39am » | |
Hurricane Forecast: "No Letup" in Weeks Ahead
Willie Drye
for National Geographic News
September 2, 2008
Just as Hurricane Gustav was dissipating and three tropical storms were brewing in the Atlantic, forecasters predicted that September hurricane activity would be well above normal for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.
![[image]](http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/5941/080902hurricaneforecastqj5.jpg)
Tropical storms Ike (left) and Josephine (right, off the western coast of Africa) threaten to add to an already active 2008 Atlantic hurricane system. A forecast released on September 2, 2008, predicted at least four more hurricanes in September.
Image courtesy NOAA
Five named storms should form this month, according to Colorado State University forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach. That tally includes newly named tropical storm Josephine but not Hurricane Gustav or tropical storms Hannah and Ike, as they were named in August.
Of the five predicted storms, four are expected to become hurricanes, meaning they would have winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour. Two are forecast to become major hurricanes—Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 110 miles (177 kilometers) an hour.
Low atmospheric pressure and warm seas encourage storms, and both are present now in the tropical Atlantic Basin—which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico (map)—according to Klotzbach.
"We have seen some of the lowest pressure readings on record in the tropical Atlantic during August," Klotzbach said in a statement. "Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic remain at above-average values.
"A combination of these two factors typically leads to an active September."
Jeff Masters, director of the private weather forecasting service Weather Underground, said he agrees with the prediction of an active September.
"I don't see any letup over the next two weeks," Masters said. "There could be two to three active named storms all the time in the Atlantic for the next two weeks."
In April, Colorado State's Klotzbach and Gray had forecast a "well above average" 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. They pointed out in the new statement that June and July were also very active, spawning three named storms: Hurricane Bertha, Hurricane Dolly, and tropical storm Cristobal.
Including tropical storm Arthur, which formed in May, ahead of the official season, 10 of the 15 named storms forecast in April have already taken shape.
Hanna, Ike, and Josephine
As Hurricane Gustav wanes, forecasters—along with U.S. residents from the eastern Carolinas to the Gulf Coast—are warily watching tropical storms Hanna, Ike, and Josephine.
The three storms formed within the past seven days, bringing to ten the total number of named storms so far in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and will end on November 30.
As of 2 p.m. ET Tuesday, tropical storm Hanna was over the southern Bahamas with winds of about 70 miles (113 kilometers) an hour—just shy of hurricane status.
Hanna is expected to gradually strengthen over the next three days before making landfall on Friday or Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane anywhere from West Palm Beach (map), Florida, north to Charleston (map), South Carolina.
Tropical storm Ike is about 1,500 miles (2,400 kilometers) east of San Juan (map), Puerto Rico, and has winds of about 50 miles (80 kilometers) an hour.
The current five-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center says that by Saturday, Ike will have developed into a Category 2 hurricane (with wind speeds of 96 to 110 miles an hour, or 155 to 177 kilometers an hour). Ike could pose a threat anywhere from Jamaica to Cape Canaveral, Florida, according to current models.
Newly formed tropical storm Josephine is just off the west coast of Africa with winds of about 40 miles (64 kilometers) an hour. That storm will be in the south-central Atlantic by Friday and is expected to head west-northwest toward the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, or the southern U.S. East Coast.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/09/080902-hurricane-forecast.html
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #55 on Sept 5, 2008, 12:54am » | |
![[image]](http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/9291/024514123smnc5.gif)
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #56 on Sept 5, 2008, 8:37pm » | |
Hurricane Gustav's Path And Development
![[image]](http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/8339/080905072122large497454rr0.jpg)
The development and path of Hurricane Gustav is shown via a sequence of satellite images acquired by Envisat’s Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) instrument on 25 August, 28 August, 30 August and 1 September 2008 (from right to left). (Credit: ESA)
ScienceDaily (Sep. 5, 2008) — The development and path of Hurricane Gustav is shown via a sequence of satellite images acquired by Envisat’s Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) instrument on 25 August, 28 August, 30 August and 1 September 2008 (from right to left).
Gustav formed on 25 August 2008 some 400 km southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti (seen above far right image), when a tropical wave developed curved bands and an upper level eye feature (visible), causing the U.S. National Hurricane Center to designate it Tropical Depression Seven.
Later that day, it had gained enough strength to be designated Tropical Storm Gustav. By the following morning, Gustav had strengthened into a hurricane with winds reaching 150 km per hour.
Hurricane Gustav weakened as it moved over Haiti’s mountainous landscape and was downgraded to a tropical storm. The storm moved toward Jamaica (as visible in the 28 August acquisition) and picked up strength. By 29 August, it was again upgraded to a hurricane.
As it neared the west end of Cuba on 30 August (visible), Gustav was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with sustained winds near 195 km per hour.
By 31 August Hurricane Gustav had entered the Gulf of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of more than 210 km per hour and made landfall in Louisiana on 1 September (visible) as a Category 2 hurricane with winds close to 177 km an hour.
Hurricanes are large powerful storms that rotate around a central area of extreme low pressure. They arise in warm tropical waters that transfer their heat to the air. The warmed air rises rapidly, in the process creating low pressure at the water surface. Winds begin rushing inwards and upwards around this low-pressure zone.
Instruments aboard ESA’s Envisat allow it to observe various features of hurricanes, including high atmosphere cloud structure and pressure, wind pattern and currents at sea surface level and oceanic warm features that contribute to the intensification of hurricanes.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080905072122.htm
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #57 on Sept 5, 2008, 8:39pm » | |
Global Warming: Warmer Seas Linked To Strengthening Hurricanes, According to New Research
ScienceDaily (Sep. 4, 2008) — The theory that global warming may be contributing to stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past 30 years is bolstered by a new study led by a Florida State University researcher. The study will be published in the Sept. 4 edition of the journal Nature.
Using global satellite data, FSU geography Professor James B. Elsner, University of Wisconsin-Madison Professor James P. Kossin and FSU postdoctoral researcher Thomas H. Jagger found that the strongest tropical cyclones are, in fact, getting stronger -- and that ocean temperatures play a role in driving this trend. This is consistent with the "heat-engine" theory of cyclone intensity.
"As seas warm, the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind," Elsner said. "Our results do not prove the heat-engine theory. We just show that the data are quite consistent with it."
Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology first suggested the possible connection between global warming and increases in tropical cyclone intensity in a 2005 paper. He linked the increased intensity of storms to the heating of the oceans, which has been attributed to global warming.
Critics argued that the data were not reliable enough to make assertions about the relationship between climate change and hurricanes. Moreover, when scientists looked at the mean tropical cyclone statistics, they did not see an upward trend.
Elsner's team addressed both issues by using globally consistent, satellite-derived tropical cyclone wind speeds as opposed to the observational record and by focusing on the highest wind speeds of the strongest tropical cyclones each year.
Emanuel's theory is that the intake of warm air near the ocean surface and the exhaust of colder air above the cyclone is what drives a hurricane. Other factors being equal, the warmer the ocean, the warmer the intake of air. This heat-engine theory of how hurricanes increase their intensity is well accepted, but there are many environmental factors, such as wind shear, that might prevent a hurricane from strengthening, Elsner said.
To address that problem, Elsner's team looked at a subset of hurricanes that are closest to their maximum possible intensity (MPI). Under the heat-engine theory, every storm will lose some energy through inefficiency, and that loss will limit the storm's potential. The MPI represents the storm's maximum potential under ideal environmental conditions.
"We speculated that you might not see a trend in the intensity of typical hurricanes due to environmental factors, but if the heat-engine theory is correct, you should see a trend in the intensity of hurricanes at or near their MPI," Elsner said. "On average, the strongest storms are closest to their MPI."
The researchers created a data set from satellite observations of hurricane intensity of all tropical cyclones around the globe and looked at the maximum wind speeds for each one during a 25-year period. Tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes, typhoons and tropical storms, occur on average about 90 times per year worldwide.
The researchers found that the strongest tropical cyclones are getting stronger, particularly over the North Atlantic and Indian oceans. Wind speeds for the strongest tropical storms increased from an average of 140 mph in 1981 to 156 mph in 2006, while the ocean temperature, averaged globally over the all regions where tropical cyclones form, increased from 28.2 degrees Celsius to 28.5 degrees Celsius during this period.
"By creating a better, more consistent historical data set, we've been able to weed out quality issues that introduce a lot of uncertainty," Kossin said. "Then, by looking only at the strongest tropical cyclones, where the relationship between storms and climate is most pronounced, we are able to observe the increasing trends in storm intensity that both the theory and models say should be there."
While Elsner said the heat-engine theory might explain how tropical cyclones intensify given that everything else is the same, he noted, "We still do not have a complete understanding of why some cyclones intensify, sometimes quite rapidly, and others don't."
The research is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Risk Prediction Initiative of the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Studies.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080903134323.htm
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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Chem11
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #58 on Sept 7, 2008, 10:37pm » | |
Ike's floods kill 58, add insult to Haiti's misery
GONAIVES, Haiti - Haitians took to their roofs to escape rising floodwaters for the second time in a week on Sunday as squalls from Hurricane Ike killed 58 people and collapsed a bridge that cut the last land route into the starving city of Gonaives..
Witnesses in Cabaret said floodwaters rushed into homes in the middle of the night, crushing walls and reaching chest-high levels before receding Sunday morning and leaving everything caked in mud.
In the Always Funeral Home, 21 mud-crusted bodies were piled in a small room, unclaimed. Two of them were pregnant, one still clutching a small girl to her chest.
I wonder when, if ever, these people were informed of Ike. From 9/4:
Now, the country lies in the path of Ike, currently an extremely dangerous Category Four storm with winds near 215 kilometers (135 miles) an hour, forecast to graze northern Hispaniola -- the Caribbean island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic -- on Saturday.
"We have not yet informed the population about Ike. We don't want to cause panic," said Ronald Semelfort, an official with Haiti's weather service.
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/KLMT-7J77RX?OpenDocument
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Looks like you got it wrong again, Jimbo! Sulfur content 'has been increasing'! - J. Reynolds
Obviously there is now an opening for us rank and file both to defend the environmental benefits of air pollution.. what about some comment on whether the "air pollution is good" line is utilisable, perhaps in rallies? - Wayne Hall
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Big Bunny
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| | Re: Big Wind 2007 - 2008
« Reply #59 on Sept 11, 2008, 10:40pm » | |
Hurricane Ike:
![[image]](http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/6891/at2008090756290vz1.gif)
![[image]](http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/2690/at200809model0691804fa7.gif)
![[image]](http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/5117/at200809sat0608588er4.jpg)
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident."
Arthur Schopenhauer, Philosopher, 1788-1860
"In the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, breathe the same air, and we all cherish our children’s future."
John F. Kennedy |
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